The Immediate Impact of Covid19 on Tourism Employment in Spain: Debunking the Myth of Job Precariousness?

This note explores the immediate impact that the COVID-19 crisis has had on tourist and non-tourist employment in Spain as a result of the state of alarm and period of confinement decreed from March 14th. The employment and self-employment series drawn from the Social Security affiliation data corresponding to the period between January 2017 and April 2020 are examined using the classical Box–Jenkins method (ARIMA) and the more recent Bayesian Structural Time-Series Models.